Seattle Kraken at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Bruins- Nikita ZadorovAssists1
- Nikita ZadorovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P19:57Charlie Coyle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (7), Elias Lindholm (6)0–2
- P13:23Justin Brazeau Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (4), Charlie McAvoy (2)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:23Justin Brazeau Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (4), Charlie McAvoy (2)SEA 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 61% → 74% +13BOS 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P19:57Charlie Coyle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (7), Elias Lindholm (6)SEA 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 75% → 86% +11BOS 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML SEA +150 / BOS -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -159
- SEA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BOS and SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +74 Elo | BOS 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.827th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.1% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.7%24th of 32 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–0 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.