Seattle Kraken at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:46Tim Stützle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (2)0–3
- P211:11Brady Tkachuk Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (2), Tim Stützle (10)0–2
- P15:28Adam Gaudette Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nick Cousins (3), Zack MacEwen (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:28Adam Gaudette Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nick Cousins (3), Zack MacEwen (1)SEA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 53% → 68% +15OTT 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P211:11Brady Tkachuk Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (2), Tim Stützle (10)SEA 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 72% → 87% +15OTT 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P317:46Tim Stützle Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (2)SEA 0 – 3 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML SEA +105 / OTT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 53.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.2 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −5 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +26 Elo | OTT 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.94th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.69th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 53.2%8th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.0%19th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.