Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints2
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:30Simon Edvinsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (7), Patrick Kane (7)3–2
- P212:23Anthony Beauvillier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (7), Sidney Crosby (11)2–2
- P27:19Bryan Rust Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (2)2–1
- P25:15Patrick Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (3), Lucas Raymond (13)2–0
- P21:00Jonatan Berggren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (2), Jeff Petry (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:00Jonatan Berggren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (2), Jeff Petry (2)DET 1 – 0 PIT · DET 46% → 64% +18DET 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P25:15Patrick Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (3), Lucas Raymond (13)DET 2 – 0 PIT · DET 65% → 80% +16DET 65% → 80%+16 pts
- P27:19Bryan Rust Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (2)DET 2 – 1 PIT · PIT 19% → 35% +16PIT 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P212:23Anthony Beauvillier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (7), Sidney Crosby (11)DET 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 33% → 54% +21PIT 33% → 54%+21 pts
- OT1:30Simon Edvinsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (7), Patrick Kane (7)DET 3 – 2 PIT · DET 49% → 93% +44DET 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML DET +115 / PIT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −1 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +11 Elo | PIT 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 2.820th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 4.031st of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.6 | Margin | −1.231st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3242.7% | Shot share | 49.1%18th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.