New York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Red WingsScoring summary
- P316:17Reilly Smith Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (11)4–0
- P217:40Artemi Panarin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (9), Alexis Lafrenière (6)3–0
- P216:52Jimmy Vesey Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (2), Zac Jones (4)2–0
- P113:13Chris Kreider Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (10), Artemi Panarin (11)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:13Chris Kreider Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (10), Artemi Panarin (11)NYR 1 – 0 DET · NYR 64% → 78% +14NYR 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P216:52Jimmy Vesey Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (2), Zac Jones (4)NYR 2 – 0 DET · NYR 80% → 92% +12NYR 80% → 92%+12 pts
- P217:40Artemi Panarin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (9), Alexis Lafrenière (6)NYR 3 – 0 DET · NYR 93% → 98% +5NYR 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P316:17Reilly Smith Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (11)NYR 4 – 0 DET · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 66%
- ML NYR -215 / DET +180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 62.3%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NYR -191
- DET +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −32 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.81 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +87 Elo | NYR 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.419th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 41.5%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 91.4%5th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 4th of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 5–0 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.