Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- Jack QuinnAssists2
- Zach BensonPoints2
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Zac JonesAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:55Zach Benson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (3), Alex Tuch (8)6–1
- P34:21Will Cuylle Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Zac Jones (3), Artemi Panarin (10)5–1
- P213:51Sam Lafferty Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Beck Malenstyn (2), Peyton Krebs (3)5–0
- P212:09Jordan Greenway Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (8)4–0
- P211:39Tage Thompson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (6), Connor Clifton (3)3–0
- P22:45Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (1), Jack Quinn (2)2–0
- P10:26Rasmus Dahlin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (6), Ryan McLeod (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:26Rasmus Dahlin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (6), Ryan McLeod (5)BUF 1 – 0 NYR · BUF 36% → 50% +14BUF 36% → 50%+14 pts
- P22:45Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (1), Jack Quinn (2)BUF 2 – 0 NYR · BUF 57% → 74% +17BUF 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P211:39Tage Thompson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (6), Connor Clifton (3)BUF 3 – 0 NYR · BUF 79% → 91% +12BUF 79% → 91%+12 pts
- P212:09Jordan Greenway Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (8)BUF 4 – 0 NYR · BUF 91% → 97% +6BUF 91% → 97%+6 pts
- P213:51Sam Lafferty Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Beck Malenstyn (2), Peyton Krebs (3)BUF 5 – 0 NYR · BUF 98% → >99% +2BUF 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 64%
- ML BUF +170 / NYR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 63.8%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -180
- BUF +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.7 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +2 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +99 Elo | NYR 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 67.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 4.05th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.21st of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.82nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 93.7%1st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–2 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.