Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Ridly GreigPoints1
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals2
- Ryan McLeodAssists2
- JJ PeterkaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:08JJ Peterka Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (7), Rasmus Dahlin (8)1–5
- P30:37Tage Thompson Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Alex Tuch (7), JJ Peterka (5)1–4
- P30:21Bowen Byram Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (3), Ryan McLeod (4)1–3
- P27:31Ridly Greig Goal (2) Poke, assists: Tim Stützle (11), Brady Tkachuk (9)1–2
- P20:17Bowen Byram Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (3), Rasmus Dahlin (7)0–2
- P16:37JJ Peterka Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:37JJ Peterka Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (7)OTT 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 48% → 63% +15BUF 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P20:17Bowen Byram Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (3), Rasmus Dahlin (7)OTT 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 66% → 80% +15BUF 66% → 80%+15 pts
- P27:31Ridly Greig Goal (2) Poke, assists: Tim Stützle (11), Brady Tkachuk (9)OTT 1 – 2 BUF · OTT 17% → 32% +15OTT 17% → 32%+15 pts
- P30:21Bowen Byram Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (3), Ryan McLeod (4)OTT 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 73% → 89% +17BUF 73% → 89%+17 pts
- P30:37Tage Thompson Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Alex Tuch (7), JJ Peterka (5)OTT 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 89% → 97% +8BUF 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML OTT -120 / BUF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +4 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +18 Elo | BUF 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.520th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–4 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.