Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints1
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:30John Tavares Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P211:01John Tavares Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (15), Morgan Rielly (7)1–2
- P29:10Dylan Larkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (12), Alex DeBrincat (6)1–1
- P111:12Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (6), Morgan Rielly (6)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:12Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (6), Morgan Rielly (6)DET 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 63% → 77% +14TOR 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P29:10Dylan Larkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (12), Alex DeBrincat (6)DET 1 – 1 TOR · DET 22% → 40% +18DET 22% → 40%+18 pts
- P211:01John Tavares Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (15), Morgan Rielly (7)DET 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 60% → 78% +18TOR 60% → 78%+18 pts
- P318:30John Tavares Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 1 – 3 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +1TOR >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML DET +170 / TOR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -180
- DET +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.3 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +16 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +57 Elo | TOR 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 67.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3240.9% | Shot share | 52.4%8th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 8th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 5–26th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.