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Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, NESN

Away

Bruins

6-7-1

0–4

at

Home

Maple Leafs

7-5-2

BOS 47%TOR 53%

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Scotiabank Arena · ESPN+, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored BOS favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Bruins
    Maple Leafs

    Scoring summary

    • P315:58Steven Lorentz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (3)0–4
    • P314:13Matthew Knies Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (5), Morgan Rielly (5)0–3
    • P29:58William Nylander Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (14), Morgan Rielly (4)0–2
    • P28:44Morgan Rielly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (13), Matthew Knies (2)0–1

    Turning points

    The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P28:44Morgan Rielly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (13), Matthew Knies (2)BOS 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 52% → 71% +19
    2. P29:58William Nylander Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (14), Morgan Rielly (4)BOS 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 72% → 86% +15
    3. P314:13Matthew Knies Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (5), Morgan Rielly (5)BOS 0 – 3 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +1
    4. P315:58Steven Lorentz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (3)BOS 0 – 4 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Maple Leafs 53%

    Toss-upHit
    BOS 47%TOR 53%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    TOR 53%
    ML BOS +105 / TOR -125
    Pre-line forecast
    TOR 61%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    TOR 56%
    Ratings vs. market
    +3.0 pts
    TOR: Elo 56.2%, market 53.2%
    Fair odds
    TOR -114
    BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    BOS 2.7 – 2.8 TOR
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorBOSTORWhy
    Team rating15171514Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+2+14BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsTOR +44 EloTOR 56.2%
    Market-implied ratingsTOR 61.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastTOR 60.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastTOR 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
    BOSStatTOR
    26th of 322.6Goals scored3.016th of 32
    21st of 323.2Goals allowed3.08th of 32
    23rd of 32−0.6Margin0.014th of 32
    20th of 3248.9%Shot share52.7%9th of 32
    21st of 3289.4%Save percentage90.5%12th of 32
    17th of 324–6Last 104–617th of 32
    20th of 322–4Road vs home4–210th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    BruinsMaple Leafs
    145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonBOSTOR
    Puck line5–87–6
    Last 104–65–5
    Favorite3–55–6
    Underdog2–32–0
    Overs–unders7–66–7
    Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    BOS 9–3 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.