Columbus Blue Jackets at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Sean KuralyGoals1
- Kevin LabancAssists2
- Sean KuralyPoints2
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:42Jared McCann Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (5), Ryker Evans (6)2–5
- P213:34Will Borgen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (3), Jaden Schwartz (6)2–4
- P27:23Eeli Tolvanen Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Eberle (4), Jared McCann (11)2–3
- P27:13Brandon Tanev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P22:50Tye Kartye Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Andre Burakovsky (7), Yanni Gourde (4)2–1
- P114:08Zachary Aston-Reese Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Sean Kuraly (3), Kevin Labanc (7)2–0
- P113:46Sean Kuraly Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Aston-Reese (3), Kevin Labanc (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:46Sean Kuraly Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Aston-Reese (3), Kevin Labanc (6)CBJ 1 – 0 SEA · CBJ 45% → 61% +16CBJ 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P114:08Zachary Aston-Reese Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Sean Kuraly (3), Kevin Labanc (7)CBJ 2 – 0 SEA · CBJ 61% → 76% +15CBJ 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P22:50Tye Kartye Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Andre Burakovsky (7), Yanni Gourde (4)CBJ 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 21% → 37% +16SEA 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P27:13Brandon Tanev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 35% → 55% +19SEA 35% → 55%+19 pts
- P27:23Eeli Tolvanen Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Eberle (4), Jared McCann (11)CBJ 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 55% → 73% +18SEA 55% → 73%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML CBJ +120 / SEA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -128
- CBJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +52 Elo | SEA 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.317th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 47.6%26th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–6 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–6 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.