Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Nicolas RoyGoals1
- Nicolas RoyAssists1
- Nicolas RoyPoints2
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:29Jared McCann Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Brandon Montour (7)3–4
- P318:38Alex Pietrangelo Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (10), Jack Eichel (18)3–3
- P32:58Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (4) Deflected, assists: none2–3
- P27:12Brandon Tanev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (1)2–2
- P117:21Brandon Tanev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P113:31Nicolas Roy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (9), Jack Eichel (17)2–0
- P110:13Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (6), Jack Eichel (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:13Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (6), Jack Eichel (16)VGK 1 – 0 SEA · VGK 55% → 70% +15VGK 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P27:12Brandon Tanev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (1)VGK 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 28% → 46% +18SEA 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P32:58Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (4) Deflected, assists: noneVGK 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 47% → 73% +26SEA 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P318:38Alex Pietrangelo Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (10), Jack Eichel (18)VGK 3 – 3 SEA · VGK <1% → 51% +50VGK <1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT0:29Jared McCann Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Brandon Montour (7)VGK 3 – 4 SEA · SEA 49% → 90% +42SEA 49% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML VGK -135 / SEA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 54.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +29 Elo | VGK 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.5 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.5 | Margin | −0.418th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 46.9%27th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–4 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–3 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–1 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.