Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevAssists3
- Ivan BarbashevPoints3
Oilers- Brett KulakGoals1
- Darnell NurseAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:55Mark Stone Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (15), Ivan Barbashev (8)4–2
- P319:11Noah Hanifin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (7), Alexander Holtz (5)3–2
- P310:05Noah Hanifin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (4), Jack Eichel (14)2–2
- P215:56Zach Hyman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P212:18Brett Kulak Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (6), Connor Brown (1)1–1
- P116:05Jack Eichel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (9), Ivan Barbashev (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:05Jack Eichel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (9), Ivan Barbashev (6)VGK 1 – 0 EDM · VGK 42% → 59% +17VGK 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P212:18Brett Kulak Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (6), Connor Brown (1)VGK 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 35% → 56% +21EDM 35% → 56%+21 pts
- P215:56Zach Hyman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 56% → 76% +21EDM 56% → 76%+21 pts
- P310:05Noah Hanifin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (4), Jack Eichel (14)VGK 2 – 2 EDM · VGK 16% → 46% +30VGK 16% → 46%+30 pts
- P319:11Noah Hanifin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (7), Alexander Holtz (5)VGK 3 – 2 EDM · VGK 49% → >99% +51VGK 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 59%
- ML VGK +135 / EDM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 55.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- EDM -143
- VGK +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +41 Elo | EDM 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 61.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.5 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.4 | Margin | −0.825th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–4 | Road vs home | 2–530th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–4 | 4–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–2 | 3–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–2 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.