New Jersey Devils at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints1
OilersScoring summary
- P39:25Timo Meier Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Dawson Mercer (5)3–0
- P216:34Jesper Bratt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (6), Dougie Hamilton (7)2–0
- P15:18Stefan Noesen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (3), Jesper Bratt (12)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:18Stefan Noesen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (3), Jesper Bratt (12)NJ 1 – 0 EDM · NJ 55% → 69% +14NJ 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P216:34Jesper Bratt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (6), Dougie Hamilton (7)NJ 2 – 0 EDM · NJ 75% → 89% +15NJ 75% → 89%+15 pts
- P39:25Timo Meier Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Dawson Mercer (5)NJ 3 – 0 EDM · NJ 96% → >99% +3NJ 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML NJ -135 / EDM +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 39.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- EDM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.4 – 3.1 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +4 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +72 Elo | EDM 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 7th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.623rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 55.8%2nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.6%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 3–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 0–2 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.