New Jersey Devils at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals2
- Kevin BahlAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:45Blake Coleman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P314:54Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (3), Dan Vladar (1)0–2
- P314:26Blake Coleman Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (4), Rasmus Andersson (7)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P314:26Blake Coleman Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (4), Rasmus Andersson (7)NJ 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 46% → 87% +40CGY 46% → 87%+40 pts
- P314:54Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (3), Dan Vladar (1)NJ 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 88% → >99% +11CGY 88% → >99%+11 pts
- P316:45Blake Coleman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 0 – 3 CGY · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 61%
- ML NJ -175 / CGY +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- NJ: Elo 50.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NJ -159
- CGY +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −13 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +6 Elo | NJ 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.417th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 9th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–1 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.