Calgary Flames at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Anthony ManthaGoals1
- Justin KirklandAssists1
- Anthony ManthaPoints1
Utah HC- Mikhail SergachevGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists2
- Mikhail SergachevPoints3
Scoring summary
- P35:13Clayton Keller Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (4), Mikhail Sergachev (7)1–5
- P216:32Mikhail Sergachev Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (3), Nick Schmaltz (11)1–4
- P24:10Maveric Lamoureux Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1), Jack McBain (2)1–3
- P23:53Anthony Mantha Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Kirkland (4), MacKenzie Weegar (2)1–2
- P119:58Barrett Hayton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (10), Ian Cole (5)0–2
- P14:41Alexander Kerfoot Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (4), Mikhail Sergachev (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:41Alexander Kerfoot Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (4), Mikhail Sergachev (6)CGY 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 53% → 68% +15UTAH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P119:58Barrett Hayton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (10), Ian Cole (5)CGY 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 70% → 83% +14UTAH 70% → 83%+14 pts
- P23:53Anthony Mantha Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Kirkland (4), MacKenzie Weegar (2)CGY 1 – 2 UTAH · CGY 16% → 30% +14CGY 16% → 30%+14 pts
- P24:10Maveric Lamoureux Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1), Jack McBain (2)CGY 1 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 70% → 84% +14UTAH 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P216:32Mikhail Sergachev Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (3), Nick Schmaltz (11)CGY 1 – 4 UTAH · UTAH 89% → 96% +8UTAH 89% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 53%
- ML CGY +105 / UTAH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- UTAH: Elo 53.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -114
- CGY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.2 – 3.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −9 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +23 Elo | UTAH 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.727th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.826th of 32 |
| 30th of 3244.3% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 87.3%29th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.