Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Flames- Anthony ManthaGoals1
- Tyson BarrieAssists1
- Anthony ManthaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:57Mattias Janmark Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (7), Darnell Nurse (5)4–2
- P310:10Zach Hyman Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4), Leon Draisaitl (6)3–2
- P34:28Yegor Sharangovich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (5)2–2
- P24:33Anthony Mantha Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Tyson Barrie (1), Mikael Backlund (4)2–1
- P18:12Jeff Skinner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (2)2–0
- P10:20Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:20Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (3)EDM 1 – 0 CGY · EDM 59% → 72% +13EDM 59% → 72%+13 pts
- P18:12Jeff Skinner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (2)EDM 2 – 0 CGY · EDM 73% → 84% +11EDM 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P24:33Anthony Mantha Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Tyson Barrie (1), Mikael Backlund (4)EDM 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 13% → 26% +13CGY 13% → 26%+13 pts
- P34:28Yegor Sharangovich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (5)EDM 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 20% → 45% +25CGY 20% → 45%+25 pts
- P310:10Zach Hyman Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4), Leon Draisaitl (6)EDM 3 – 2 CGY · EDM 54% → 84% +30EDM 54% → 84%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 59%
- ML EDM -155 / CGY +135
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 53.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- EDM -143
- CGY +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.5 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −6 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +21 Elo | EDM 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.4% | Shot share | 46.3%28th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 32 |
| 7th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–8 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–2 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.