Utah Hockey Club at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Logan CooleyGoals1
- Nick BjugstadAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints2
Golden Knights- Brett HowdenGoals1
- Brett HowdenAssists1
- Brett HowdenPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:15Brett Howden Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (5), Mark Stone (15)3–4
- P313:10Alexander Kerfoot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (2), Maveric Lamoureux (1)3–3
- P35:37William Karlsson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (4)2–3
- P219:59Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (5), Keegan Kolesar (4)2–2
- P215:06Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (8), Brett Howden (1)2–1
- P212:00Ian Cole Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (8), Clayton Keller (6)2–0
- P111:52Logan Cooley Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (1), Jack McBain (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:06Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (8), Brett Howden (1)UTAH 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 17% → 35% +18VGK 17% → 35%+18 pts
- P219:59Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (5), Keegan Kolesar (4)UTAH 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 32% → 56% +24VGK 32% → 56%+24 pts
- P35:37William Karlsson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (4)UTAH 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 55% → 81% +26VGK 55% → 81%+26 pts
- P313:10Alexander Kerfoot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (2), Maveric Lamoureux (1)UTAH 3 – 3 VGK · UTAH 12% → 46% +34UTAH 12% → 46%+34 pts
- OT2:15Brett Howden Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (5), Mark Stone (15)UTAH 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 52% → 96% +44VGK 52% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML UTAH +145 / VGK -170
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 59.9%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -154
- UTAH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | 0 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +70 Elo | VGK 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 4.52nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.55th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%20th of 32 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.