Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals2
- Sean MonahanAssists1
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints2
Penguins- Anthony ManthaGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Anthony ManthaPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Sidney Crosby Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Adam Fantilli Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Bryan Rust Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P316:54Bryan Rust Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (12), Erik Karlsson (6)4–4
- P314:54Kris Letang Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (3), Arturs Silovs (1)4–3
- P34:54Dmitri Voronkov Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Sean Monahan (3), Kirill Marchenko (3)4–2
- P31:55Yegor Chinakhov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (3), Isac Lundestrom (1)3–2
- P217:39Dmitri Voronkov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (2)2–2
- P118:01Anthony Mantha Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (11), Justin Brazeau (4)1–2
- P115:44Charlie Coyle Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dante Fabbro (1), Cole Sillinger (2)1–1
- P10:59Ryan Shea Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (4), Parker Wotherspoon (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:44Charlie Coyle Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dante Fabbro (1), Cole Sillinger (2)CBJ 1 – 1 PIT · CBJ 33% → 49% +16CBJ 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P118:01Anthony Mantha Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (11), Justin Brazeau (4)CBJ 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 51% → 68% +17PIT 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P217:39Dmitri Voronkov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (2)CBJ 2 – 2 PIT · CBJ 27% → 49% +22CBJ 27% → 49%+22 pts
- P31:55Yegor Chinakhov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (3), Isac Lundestrom (1)CBJ 3 – 2 PIT · CBJ 49% → 74% +25CBJ 49% → 74%+25 pts
- P316:54Bryan Rust Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (12), Erik Karlsson (6)CBJ 4 – 4 PIT · PIT 5% → 50% +45PIT 5% → 50%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML CBJ -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 61.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +8 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +81 Elo | PIT 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +1.15th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 45.5%28th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 92.0%5th of 32 |
| 8th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
| 8th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 148528th of 32 |
| 20th of 321493 | Elo rating | 149121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 7–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 7–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–6 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 3–4 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.