New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals2
- Nico HischierAssists1
- Dawson MercerPoints2
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Ivan ProvorovAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:39Dmitri Voronkov Goal (2) Poke, assists: Ivan Provorov (2)3–2
- P319:03Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (2), Brenden Dillon (1)3–1
- P211:09Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (3), Ondrej Palat (1)2–1
- P28:49Kirill Marchenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P115:47Timo Meier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (2), Jesper Bratt (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:47Timo Meier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (2), Jesper Bratt (2)NJ 1 – 0 CBJ · NJ 52% → 68% +16NJ 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P28:49Kirill Marchenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 29% → 48% +19CBJ 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P211:09Dawson Mercer Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (3), Ondrej Palat (1)NJ 2 – 1 CBJ · NJ 52% → 71% +20NJ 52% → 71%+20 pts
- P319:03Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (2), Brenden Dillon (1)NJ 3 – 1 CBJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:39Dmitri Voronkov Goal (2) Poke, assists: Ivan Provorov (2)NJ 3 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 0% → <1% +0CBJ 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 52%
- ML NJ -120 / CBJ +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- NJ: Elo 39.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -109
- CBJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +20 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.49 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +74 Elo | CBJ 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.6%22nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 32 |
| 10th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 20th of 321490 | Elo rating | 149719th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NJ |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–53 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 35–52 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 5–2 CBJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.