New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists1
- Luke HughesPoints2
Blue Jackets- Sean MonahanGoals2
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Sean MonahanPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:50Sean Monahan Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P318:35Timo Meier Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (29), Luke Hughes (11)2–3
- P317:10Luke Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (6), Ondrej Palat (7)1–3
- P213:58Sean Monahan Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (7), Kirill Marchenko (22)0–3
- P29:36Zach Werenski Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (21), Sean Monahan (17)0–2
- P17:55Ivan Provorov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (7), Mathieu Olivier (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:55Ivan Provorov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (7), Mathieu Olivier (5)NJ 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 34% → 50% +15CBJ 34% → 50%+15 pts
- P29:36Zach Werenski Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (21), Sean Monahan (17)NJ 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 58% → 76% +18CBJ 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P213:58Sean Monahan Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (7), Kirill Marchenko (22)NJ 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 79% → 92% +12CBJ 79% → 92%+12 pts
- P318:35Timo Meier Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (29), Luke Hughes (11)NJ 2 – 3 CBJ · NJ <1% → 1% +1NJ <1% → 1%+1 pts
- P318:50Sean Monahan Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 2 – 4 CBJ · CBJ >99% → >99% +1CBJ >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 67%
- ML NJ -225 / CBJ +190
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.8%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- NJ -201
- CBJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.7 – 2.8 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +1 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +19 Elo | NJ 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.419th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.8% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 87.9%32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3211–4 | Road vs home | 8–712th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–17 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 12–22 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–1 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.