Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinAssists1
- Logan O'ConnorPoints1
DevilsScoring summary
- P316:05Parker Kelly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (22), Calvin de Haan (5)4–0
- P214:36Artturi Lehkonen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (14)3–0
- P114:52Logan O'Connor Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Calvin de Haan (4), Joel Kiviranta (2)2–0
- P14:07Ross Colton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (13), Valeri Nichushkin (4)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:07Ross Colton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (13), Valeri Nichushkin (4)COL 1 – 0 NJ · COL 40% → 55% +15COL 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P114:52Logan O'Connor Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Calvin de Haan (4), Joel Kiviranta (2)COL 2 – 0 NJ · COL 58% → 73% +15COL 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P214:36Artturi Lehkonen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (14)COL 3 – 0 NJ · COL 83% → 94% +10COL 83% → 94%+10 pts
- P316:05Parker Kelly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (22), Calvin de Haan (5)COL 4 – 0 NJ · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 60%
- ML COL +140 / NJ -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- NJ: Elo 56.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NJ -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −11 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +46 Elo | NJ 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 52.9%6th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 9th of 328–6 | Road vs home | 6–721st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–21 | 14–15 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–11 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.