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Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalTNT, HBO Max

Away

Avalanche

13-11-0

3–5

at

Home

Stars

14-8-0

COL 45%DAL 55%

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American Airlines Center · TNT, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored COL favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%COL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P317:17Mason Marchment Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
  • P38:03Mikko Rantanen Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (24)3–4
  • P31:02Artturi Lehkonen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (29), Samuel Girard (11)2–4
  • P218:42Roope Hintz Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (10), Jamie Benn (8)1–4
  • P27:07Jamie Benn Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (8), Sam Steel (7)1–3
  • P114:28Mason Marchment Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (7), Tyler Seguin (11)1–2
  • P113:56Valeri Nichushkin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (19), Cale Makar (23)1–1
  • P15:36Tyler Seguin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (14), Matt Duchene (15)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P15:36Tyler Seguin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (14), Matt Duchene (15)COL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 55% → 69% +14
  2. P113:56Valeri Nichushkin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (19), Cale Makar (23)COL 1 – 1 DAL · COL 30% → 45% +16
  3. P114:28Mason Marchment Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (7), Tyler Seguin (11)COL 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 55% → 70% +16
  4. P27:07Jamie Benn Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (8), Sam Steel (7)COL 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 72% → 86% +14
  5. P38:03Mikko Rantanen Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (24)COL 3 – 4 DAL · COL 5% → 19% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 55%

LeanHit
COL 45%DAL 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
DAL 55%
ML COL +115 / DAL -135
Pre-line forecast
DAL 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 59%
Ratings vs. market
+3.9 pts
DAL: Elo 59.2%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
DAL -124
COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
COL 3.1 – 3.4 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCOLDALWhy
Team rating15291549Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−6+3COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +64 EloDAL 59.2%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 58.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 58.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
COLStatDAL
10th of 323.3Goals scored3.48th of 32
30th of 323.7Goals allowed2.75th of 32
20th of 32−0.3Margin+0.86th of 32
4th of 3253.7%Shot share53.1%7th of 32
32nd of 3287.2%Save percentage90.6%10th of 32
1st of 327–3Last 106–45th of 32
6th of 326–4Road vs home8–12nd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AvalancheStars
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCOLDAL
Puck line7–1610–11
Last 104–65–5
Favorite4–128–8
Underdog3–42–3
Overs–unders14–99–12
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

COL 5–5 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.