Colorado Avalanche at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jonathan DrouinGoals2
- Valeri NichushkinAssists2
- Valeri NichushkinPoints3
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Mackie SamoskevichAssists2
- Mackie SamoskevichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:17Anton Lundell Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (4), Uvis Balinskis (6)7–4
- P317:15Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (28), Mikko Rantanen (18)7–3
- P315:49Oliver Kylington Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (2), Mikko Rantanen (17)6–3
- P218:40Sam Reinhart Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (9), Matthew Tkachuk (10)5–3
- P216:58Mikko Rantanen Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Samuel Girard (10), Devon Toews (6)5–2
- P28:54Samuel Girard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (16), Valeri Nichushkin (1)4–2
- P24:04Logan O'Connor Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kylington (1), Ivan Ivan (3)3–2
- P20:34Jonathan Drouin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (22), Devon Toews (5)2–2
- P115:44Aleksander Barkov Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (9), Niko Mikkola (9)1–2
- P19:13Jonathan Drouin Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Cale Makar (21), Artturi Lehkonen (4)1–1
- P10:52Carter Verhaeghe Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (9), Mackie Samoskevich (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:13Jonathan Drouin Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Cale Makar (21), Artturi Lehkonen (4)COL 1 – 1 FLA · COL 31% → 46% +15COL 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P115:44Aleksander Barkov Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (9), Niko Mikkola (9)COL 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 54% → 70% +16FLA 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P20:34Jonathan Drouin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (22), Devon Toews (5)COL 2 – 2 FLA · COL 30% → 47% +17COL 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P24:04Logan O'Connor Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kylington (1), Ivan Ivan (3)COL 3 – 2 FLA · COL 47% → 65% +18COL 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P28:54Samuel Girard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (16), Valeri Nichushkin (1)COL 4 – 2 FLA · COL 67% → 83% +16COL 67% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 54%
- ML COL +110 / FLA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 60.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 3.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +2 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +74 Elo | FLA 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 51.8%10th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–14 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 0–2 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.