Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Colton SissonsPoints1
Avalanche- Samuel GirardGoals1
- Samuel GirardAssists1
- Samuel GirardPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:47Samuel Girard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P30:59Colton Sissons Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (10)2–2
- P211:37Mikko Rantanen Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (1), Nathan MacKinnon (23)1–2
- P24:32Devon Toews Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (8), T.J. Tynan (1)1–1
- P11:45Luke Evangelista Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Juuso Parssinen (3), Marc Del Gaizo (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:45Luke Evangelista Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Juuso Parssinen (3), Marc Del Gaizo (3)NSH 1 – 0 COL · NSH 44% → 59% +15NSH 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P24:32Devon Toews Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (8), T.J. Tynan (1)NSH 1 – 1 COL · COL 36% → 55% +19COL 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P211:37Mikko Rantanen Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (1), Nathan MacKinnon (23)NSH 1 – 2 COL · COL 54% → 74% +20COL 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P30:59Colton Sissons Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (10)NSH 2 – 2 COL · NSH 23% → 46% +23NSH 23% → 46%+23 pts
- OT2:47Samuel Girard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 2 – 3 COL · COL 51% → 97% +46COL 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 56%
- ML NSH +120 / COL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- COL: Elo 56.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -128
- NSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.1 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −13 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +42 Elo | COL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.930th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.519th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 86.8%32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 4–519th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.