Carolina Hurricanes at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals2
- Jordan MartinookAssists1
- Jordan MartinookPoints3
Avalanche- Sam MalinskiGoals1
- John LudvigAssists1
- Sam MalinskiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:10Mikko Rantanen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (22)4–6
- P32:50Jordan Martinook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (15), Sebastian Aho (10)4–5
- P218:49Mikko Rantanen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (10), Nathan MacKinnon (21)3–5
- P216:42Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (12), Devon Toews (3)3–4
- P215:49Nathan MacKinnon Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (2), John Ludvig (2)3–3
- P212:26Martin Necas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (7), Andrei Svechnikov (9)3–2
- P210:57Sam Malinski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (20), Samuel Girard (7)2–2
- P29:13Cale Makar Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P24:37Jordan Martinook Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (6), Sean Walker (1)2–0
- P19:02Jack Drury Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (4), Jordan Staal (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:57Sam Malinski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (20), Samuel Girard (7)CAR 2 – 2 COL · COL 27% → 47% +20COL 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P212:26Martin Necas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (7), Andrei Svechnikov (9)CAR 3 – 2 COL · CAR 53% → 73% +20CAR 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P215:49Nathan MacKinnon Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (2), John Ludvig (2)CAR 3 – 3 COL · COL 26% → 47% +21COL 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P216:42Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (12), Devon Toews (3)CAR 3 – 4 COL · COL 47% → 70% +22COL 47% → 70%+22 pts
- P32:50Jordan Martinook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (15), Sebastian Aho (10)CAR 4 – 5 COL · CAR 10% → 27% +17CAR 10% → 27%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 54%
- ML CAR -130 / COL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 50.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.4 – 3.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −31 | −14 | CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.78 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +3 Elo | CAR 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 324.2 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.8 | Margin | −0.621st of 32 |
| 1st of 3258.2% | Shot share | 55.1%3rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 86.7%32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–1 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–3 | 4–10 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.