Utah Hockey Club at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:15Gustav Nyquist Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (6)0–4
- P211:05Filip Forsberg Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P111:58Jonathan Marchessault Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (9), Steven Stamkos (4)0–2
- P12:37Filip Forsberg Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (8), Juuso Parssinen (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37Filip Forsberg Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (8), Juuso Parssinen (2)UTAH 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 60% → 73% +13NSH 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P111:58Jonathan Marchessault Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (9), Steven Stamkos (4)UTAH 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 74% → 85% +11NSH 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P211:05Filip Forsberg Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: noneUTAH 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 89% → 96% +7NSH 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P318:15Gustav Nyquist Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (6)UTAH 0 – 4 NSH · NSH >99% → 100% +0NSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 60%
- ML UTAH +140 / NSH -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- NSH: Elo 55.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NSH -149
- UTAH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.0 – 3.5 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +38 Elo | NSH 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.230th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–6 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.