Utah Hockey Club at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Dylan GuentherAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:56Jack McBain Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (8), Barrett Hayton (3)4–2
- P316:39Dylan Guenther Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P313:29Jordan Kyrou Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (5)2–2
- P218:09Matias Maccelli Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (5), Logan Cooley (9)2–1
- P118:41Colton Parayko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (4), Jake Neighbours (2)1–1
- P10:18Michael Kesselring Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (7), Nick Schmaltz (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:18Michael Kesselring Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (7), Nick Schmaltz (12)UTAH 1 – 0 STL · UTAH 51% → 65% +14UTAH 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P118:41Colton Parayko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (4), Jake Neighbours (2)UTAH 1 – 1 STL · STL 32% → 49% +17STL 32% → 49%+17 pts
- P218:09Matias Maccelli Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (5), Logan Cooley (9)UTAH 2 – 1 STL · UTAH 51% → 73% +23UTAH 51% → 73%+23 pts
- P313:29Jordan Kyrou Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (5)UTAH 2 – 2 STL · STL 13% → 50% +36STL 13% → 50%+36 pts
- P316:39Dylan Guenther Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneUTAH 3 – 2 STL · UTAH 50% → 94% +44UTAH 50% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 51%
- ML UTAH -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- UTAH: Elo 43.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +46 Elo | STL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.420th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 46.6%27th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.