Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PerbixGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Blues- Oskar SundqvistGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists1
- Oskar SundqvistPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:43Victor Hedman Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (12)2–3
- P38:51Jordan Kyrou Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (4), Brandon Saad (3)1–3
- P218:25Alexey Toropchenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (1)1–2
- P27:57Oskar Sundqvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (1), Zack Bolduc (4)1–1
- P22:39Nick Perbix Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Anthony Cirelli (11), Nikita Kucherov (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:39Nick Perbix Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Anthony Cirelli (11), Nikita Kucherov (11)TB 1 – 0 STL · TB 59% → 76% +16TB 59% → 76%+16 pts
- P27:57Oskar Sundqvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (1), Zack Bolduc (4)TB 1 – 1 STL · STL 24% → 42% +18STL 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P218:25Alexey Toropchenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (1)TB 1 – 2 STL · STL 43% → 67% +24STL 43% → 67%+24 pts
- P38:51Jordan Kyrou Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (4), Brandon Saad (3)TB 1 – 3 STL · STL 76% → 94% +18STL 76% → 94%+18 pts
- P311:43Victor Hedman Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (12)TB 2 – 3 STL · TB 3% → 19% +16TB 3% → 19%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML TB -175 / STL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- TB: Elo 49.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -159
- STL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.521st of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 46.4%28th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 16th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–7 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.