Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Marc Del GaizoAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals2
- Uvis BalinskisAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:51Juuso Parssinen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Marc Del Gaizo (2), Luke Evangelista (6)2–6
- P311:23Tomas Nosek Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Nate Schmidt (3), Mackie Samoskevich (2)1–6
- P219:32Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (9), Matthew Tkachuk (6)1–5
- P213:52Steven Stamkos Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (7), Filip Forsberg (5)1–4
- P211:18Carter Verhaeghe Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Uvis Balinskis (4), Aleksander Barkov (8)0–4
- P21:56Evan Rodrigues Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (6), Anton Lundell (8)0–3
- P15:14Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (7), Uvis Balinskis (3)0–2
- P13:33Sam Reinhart Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Aleksander Barkov (7), Niko Mikkola (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:33Sam Reinhart Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Aleksander Barkov (7), Niko Mikkola (7)NSH 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 65% → 78% +13FLA 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P15:14Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (7), Uvis Balinskis (3)NSH 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 78% → 87% +10FLA 78% → 87%+10 pts
- P21:56Evan Rodrigues Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (6), Anton Lundell (8)NSH 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 89% → 96% +6FLA 89% → 96%+6 pts
- P211:18Carter Verhaeghe Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Uvis Balinskis (4), Aleksander Barkov (8)NSH 0 – 4 FLA · FLA 97% → >99% +2FLA 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P213:52Steven Stamkos Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (7), Filip Forsberg (5)NSH 1 – 4 FLA · NSH <1% → 3% +2NSH <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 66%
- ML NSH +180 / FLA -215
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- FLA: Elo 69.2%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- FLA -191
- NSH +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 3.7 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | NSH: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +140 Elo | FLA 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 68.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 50.7%15th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–8 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.