New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists2
- Dougie HamiltonPoints2
Panthers- Uvis BalinskisAssists1
- Uvis BalinskisPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:58Ondrej Palat Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (16)4–1
- P315:07Paul Cotter Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (7), Dougie Hamilton (13)3–1
- P217:29Timo Meier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (6), Jonas Siegenthaler (6)2–1
- P28:41Sam Reinhart Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (5), Aleksander Barkov (11)1–1
- P18:30Jack Hughes Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (15), Dougie Hamilton (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:30Jack Hughes Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (15), Dougie Hamilton (12)NJ 1 – 0 FLA · NJ 48% → 63% +15NJ 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P28:41Sam Reinhart Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (5), Aleksander Barkov (11)NJ 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 32% → 52% +20FLA 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P217:29Timo Meier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (6), Jonas Siegenthaler (6)NJ 2 – 1 FLA · NJ 49% → 71% +23NJ 49% → 71%+23 pts
- P315:07Paul Cotter Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (7), Dougie Hamilton (13)NJ 3 – 1 FLA · NJ 90% → >99% +10NJ 90% → >99%+10 pts
- P318:58Ondrej Palat Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (16)NJ 4 – 1 FLA · NJ >99% → 100% +0NJ >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 52%
- ML NJ +100 / FLA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 62.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -109
- NJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.7 – 2.8 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −13 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +85 Elo | FLA 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.88th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 51.1%14th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 8th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–2 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.