Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals2
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Alex NewhookPoints2
Devils- Jonas SiegenthalerGoals1
- Paul CotterAssists1
- Ondrej PalatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:34Jesper Bratt Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P38:13Alex Newhook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (4)3–4
- P36:23Jack Hughes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (13)2–4
- P219:01Brendan Gallagher Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (4), Christian Dvorak (4)2–3
- P210:20Jonas Siegenthaler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (5), Paul Cotter (4)1–3
- P25:00Alex Newhook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (5), Jayden Struble (3)1–2
- P112:38Ondrej Palat Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (10)0–2
- P11:33Jesper Bratt Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (9), Dougie Hamilton (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:33Jesper Bratt Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (9), Dougie Hamilton (8)MTL 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 74% → 84% +10NJ 74% → 84%+10 pts
- P210:20Jonas Siegenthaler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (5), Paul Cotter (4)MTL 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 83% → 93% +10NJ 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P219:01Brendan Gallagher Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (4), Christian Dvorak (4)MTL 2 – 3 NJ · MTL 5% → 16% +11MTL 5% → 16%+11 pts
- P36:23Jack Hughes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (13)MTL 2 – 4 NJ · NJ 86% → 97% +11NJ 86% → 97%+11 pts
- P38:13Alex Newhook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (4)MTL 3 – 4 NJ · MTL 3% → 13% +11MTL 3% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 74%
- ML MTL +270 / NJ -340
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 64.6%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -286
- MTL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.5 – 4.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +12 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +105 Elo | NJ 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 74.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.1 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.4 | Margin | +0.77th of 32 |
| 30th of 3243.7% | Shot share | 51.5%13th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 28th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–2 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.