Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals2
- Daniil MiromanovAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:07Matt Coronato Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P317:14Matt Coronato Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (4)2–2
- P35:56Joel Armia Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (4)1–2
- P216:23Brendan Gallagher Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (4), Oliver Kapanen (2)1–1
- P24:20Connor Zary Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (3), Daniil Miromanov (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:20Connor Zary Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (3), Daniil Miromanov (2)CGY 1 – 0 MTL · CGY 56% → 74% +17CGY 56% → 74%+17 pts
- P216:23Brendan Gallagher Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (4), Oliver Kapanen (2)CGY 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 24% → 45% +21MTL 24% → 45%+21 pts
- P35:56Joel Armia Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (4)CGY 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 46% → 74% +28MTL 46% → 74%+28 pts
- P317:14Matt Coronato Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (4)CGY 2 – 2 MTL · CGY 5% → 52% +47CGY 5% → 52%+47 pts
- OT0:07Matt Coronato Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 3 – 2 MTL · CGY 52% → 91% +39CGY 52% → 91%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 58%
- ML CGY -155 / MTL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- CGY: Elo 51.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -140
- MTL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.5 – 3.0 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +9 Elo | CGY 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.432nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 43.9%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 87.9%30th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 19th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–0 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.