San Jose Sharks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors NJ.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Carl GrundstromAssists1
- Carl GrundstromPoints1
DevilsScoring summary
- P116:21Nico Sturm Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Carl Grundstrom (3), Henry Thrun (4)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:21Nico Sturm Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Carl Grundstrom (3), Henry Thrun (4)SJ 1 – 0 NJ · SJ 29% → 45% +16SJ 29% → 45%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 74%
- ML SJ +270 / NJ -340
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 64.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -286
- SJ +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 4.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −10 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +107 Elo | NJ 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 73.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.3 | Margin | +0.87th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.2% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–6 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–7 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–10 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.