New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists3
- Dougie HamiltonPoints3
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Simon HolmstromAssists1
- Simon HolmstromPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:35Jack Hughes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (11)4–3
- P319:10Stefan Noesen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (11), Dougie Hamilton (10)3–3
- P315:33Dawson Mercer Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (5), Jonas Siegenthaler (5)2–3
- P312:26Brock Nelson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (6), Maxim Tsyplakov (7)1–3
- P310:30Dennis Cholowski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (5), Pierre Engvall (2)1–2
- P25:57Jack Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (9), Jesper Bratt (14)1–1
- P113:09Simon Holmstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:09Simon Holmstrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (2)NJ 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 45% → 61% +16NYI 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P25:57Jack Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (9), Jesper Bratt (14)NJ 1 – 1 NYI · NJ 36% → 55% +19NJ 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P310:30Dennis Cholowski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (5), Pierre Engvall (2)NJ 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 48% → 80% +33NYI 48% → 80%+33 pts
- P319:10Stefan Noesen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (11), Dougie Hamilton (10)NJ 3 – 3 NYI · NJ <1% → 51% +51NJ <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT2:35Jack Hughes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (11)NJ 4 – 3 NYI · NJ 51% → 97% +46NJ 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 56%
- ML NJ -140 / NYI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- NJ: Elo 49.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -128
- NYI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.4 – 3.1 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −1 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +6 Elo | NYI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.419th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 52.5%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 9th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 4–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–2 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.