New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Nick JensenGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:50
Bo Horvat Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (2)4–2 - P314:27Drake Batherson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (13), Jake Sanderson (8)3–2
- P37:43Nick Jensen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (6), Tim Stützle (12)3–1
- P32:41Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Matt Martin (1), Kyle MacLean (1)3–0
- P218:22Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (7), Anders Lee (5)2–0
- P215:49Anders Lee Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (6), Ryan Pulock (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:49Anders Lee Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (6), Ryan Pulock (5)NYI 1 – 0 OTT · NYI 46% → 68% +22NYI 46% → 68%+22 pts
- P218:22Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (7), Anders Lee (5)NYI 2 – 0 OTT · NYI 70% → 87% +17NYI 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P32:41Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Matt Martin (1), Kyle MacLean (1)NYI 3 – 0 OTT · NYI 90% → 97% +8NYI 90% → 97%+8 pts
- P37:43Nick Jensen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (6), Tim Stützle (12)NYI 3 – 1 OTT · OTT <1% → 6% +5OTT <1% → 6%+5 pts
- P314:27Drake Batherson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (13), Jake Sanderson (8)NYI 3 – 2 OTT · OTT <1% → 12% +12OTT <1% → 12%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 56%
- ML NYI +120 / OTT -140
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 56.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -128
- NYI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.1 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +48 Elo | OTT 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 8th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 53.0%7th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%23rd of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 16th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 5–15th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–10 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–1 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.