Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Garnet HathawayGoals1
- Rasmus RistolainenAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints1
Panthers- Dmitry KulikovGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists2
- Evan RodriguesPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Evan Rodrigues Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Owen Tippett Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Aleksander Barkov Goal Backhand1–2
- P39:47Garnet Hathaway Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Scott Laughton (5), Nick Seeler (3)3–3
- P214:56Sam Bennett Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (8), Niko Mikkola (8)2–3
- P213:00Anthony Richard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (9), Rasmus Ristolainen (2)2–2
- P28:40Dmitry Kulikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (5), Sam Reinhart (12)1–2
- P25:32Nate Schmidt Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (4), Aleksander Barkov (10)1–1
- P14:57Joel Farabee Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (4), Bobby Brink (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:32Nate Schmidt Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (4), Aleksander Barkov (10)PHI 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 47% → 65% +19FLA 47% → 65%+19 pts
- P28:40Dmitry Kulikov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (5), Sam Reinhart (12)PHI 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 65% → 81% +16FLA 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P213:00Anthony Richard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (9), Rasmus Ristolainen (2)PHI 2 – 2 FLA · PHI 19% → 36% +18PHI 19% → 36%+18 pts
- P214:56Sam Bennett Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (8), Niko Mikkola (8)PHI 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 63% → 82% +18FLA 63% → 82%+18 pts
- P39:47Garnet Hathaway Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Scott Laughton (5), Nick Seeler (3)PHI 3 – 3 FLA · PHI 14% → 41% +28PHI 14% → 41%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 70%
- ML PHI +220 / FLA -270
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 69.2%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -234
- PHI +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +140 Elo | FLA 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 67.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.88th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 51.6%11th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–9 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–1 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.