Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Emil LillebergAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Owen Tippett Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Travis Konecny Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P315:44Owen Tippett Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (8)1–1
- P119:15Nikita Kucherov Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Brandon Hagel (8), Emil Lilleberg (3)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:15Nikita Kucherov Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Brandon Hagel (8), Emil Lilleberg (3)PHI 0 – 1 TB · TB 63% → 78% +15TB 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P315:44Owen Tippett Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (8)PHI 1 – 1 TB · PHI 7% → 46% +39PHI 7% → 46%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 65%
- ML PHI +175 / TB -210
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- TB: Elo 68.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -186
- PHI +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −33 | +2 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.82 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +134 Elo | TB 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 65.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.77th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–9 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.