New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Stefan NoesenGoals2
- Nico HischierAssists3
- Nico HischierPoints3
Panthers- Jesper BoqvistGoals1
- Jesper BoqvistPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:48Jesper Bratt Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–2
- P33:50Jesper Bratt Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P219:49Stefan Noesen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (10), Jack Hughes (14)4–2
- P25:56Dawson Mercer Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jack Hughes (13), Nico Hischier (9)3–2
- P24:45Sam Reinhart Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (12)2–2
- P119:58Jesper Bratt Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (14), Jack Hughes (12)2–1
- P112:13Jesper Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (7), Sam Bennett (7)1–1
- P110:01Stefan Noesen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Luke Hughes (2), Nico Hischier (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:13Jesper Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (7), Sam Bennett (7)NJ 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 42% → 58% +16FLA 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P119:58Jesper Bratt Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (14), Jack Hughes (12)NJ 2 – 1 FLA · NJ 43% → 60% +18NJ 43% → 60%+18 pts
- P24:45Sam Reinhart Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (12)NJ 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 38% → 57% +19FLA 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P25:56Dawson Mercer Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jack Hughes (13), Nico Hischier (9)NJ 3 – 2 FLA · NJ 43% → 62% +19NJ 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P219:49Stefan Noesen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (10), Jack Hughes (14)NJ 4 – 2 FLA · NJ 69% → 87% +18NJ 69% → 87%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML NJ +135 / FLA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 65.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -143
- NJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +4 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +108 Elo | FLA 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.69th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 51.7%11th of 32 |
| 9th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 4–312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–9 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–2 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.