Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorAssists1
- Logan O'ConnorPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:01Mikko Rantanen Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (26), Artturi Lehkonen (3)2–4
- P310:01Mikko Rantanen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (25), Logan O'Connor (2)2–3
- P216:07Mikko Rantanen Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (19)2–2
- P115:51Adrian Kempe Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (15), Trevor Moore (9)2–1
- P13:40Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (13), Nathan MacKinnon (24)1–1
- P10:32Adrian Kempe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (8), Anze Kopitar (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:32Adrian Kempe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (8), Anze Kopitar (14)LA 1 – 0 COL · LA 48% → 62% +14LA 48% → 62%+14 pts
- P13:40Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (13), Nathan MacKinnon (24)LA 1 – 1 COL · COL 37% → 52% +15COL 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P115:51Adrian Kempe Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (15), Trevor Moore (9)LA 2 – 1 COL · LA 48% → 65% +17LA 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P216:07Mikko Rantanen Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (19)LA 2 – 2 COL · COL 29% → 51% +22COL 29% → 51%+22 pts
- P310:01Mikko Rantanen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (25), Logan O'Connor (2)LA 2 – 3 COL · COL 51% → 82% +31COL 51% → 82%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML LA +100 / COL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- COL: Elo 57.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- LA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.2 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −11 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +49 Elo | COL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.830th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.418th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 87.3%31st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–8 | 5–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.