Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints1
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:40Kevin Rooney Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (5), Matt Coronato (2)1–3
- P317:29Trevor Moore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (13), Quinton Byfield (7)1–2
- P211:18Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (8), Dustin Wolf (1)0–2
- P210:42Mikael Backlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:42Mikael Backlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 46% → 67% +20CGY 46% → 67%+20 pts
- P211:18Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (8), Dustin Wolf (1)LA 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 67% → 83% +16CGY 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P317:29Trevor Moore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (13), Quinton Byfield (7)LA 1 – 2 CGY · LA <1% → 4% +4LA <1% → 4%+4 pts
- P319:40Kevin Rooney Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (5), Matt Coronato (2)LA 1 – 3 CGY · CGY >99% → 100% +0CGY >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 55%
- ML LA -135 / CGY +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- LA: Elo 47.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +4 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +16 Elo | CGY 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.316th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 48.3%24th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 4–312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–2 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.