Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Tyson BarrieGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- Tyson BarriePoints1
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- Pavel ZachaPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:40Brad Marchand Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (7)3–4
- P39:55Nazem Kadri Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (6)3–3
- P30:58Yegor Sharangovich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (3), Matt Coronato (1)2–3
- P28:56Cole Koepke Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (1)1–3
- P28:25Pavel Zacha Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (7)1–2
- P12:23Tyson Barrie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (2), Justin Kirkland (5)1–1
- P12:04Hampus Lindholm Goal (3) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (6), Pavel Zacha (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:23Tyson Barrie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (2), Justin Kirkland (5)CGY 1 – 1 BOS · CGY 29% → 43% +14CGY 29% → 43%+14 pts
- P28:25Pavel Zacha Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (7)CGY 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 55% → 74% +18BOS 55% → 74%+18 pts
- P30:58Yegor Sharangovich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (3), Matt Coronato (1)CGY 2 – 3 BOS · CGY 8% → 23% +15CGY 8% → 23%+15 pts
- P39:55Nazem Kadri Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (6)CGY 3 – 3 BOS · CGY 17% → 47% +30CGY 17% → 47%+30 pts
- OT4:40Brad Marchand Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (7)CGY 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 51% → >99% +49BOS 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML CGY +125 / BOS -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- CGY +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −14 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +45 Elo | BOS 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.428th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.925th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.4%22nd of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 11th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–7 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–0 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.