Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- Jacob BrysonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00JJ Peterka Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P315:42Mikael Backlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (4), Andrei Kuzmenko (7)2–2
- P217:44Matt Coronato Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (4), Blake Coleman (5)1–2
- P113:37Tage Thompson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (9), JJ Peterka (7)0–2
- P11:11Zach Benson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jacob Bryson (1), Owen Power (7)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:11Zach Benson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jacob Bryson (1), Owen Power (7)CGY 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 56% → 70% +14BUF 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P113:37Tage Thompson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (9), JJ Peterka (7)CGY 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 71% → 83% +12BUF 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P217:44Matt Coronato Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (4), Blake Coleman (5)CGY 1 – 2 BUF · CGY 10% → 24% +15CGY 10% → 24%+15 pts
- P315:42Mikael Backlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (4), Andrei Kuzmenko (7)CGY 2 – 2 BUF · CGY 8% → 48% +40CGY 8% → 48%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 56%
- ML CGY +120 / BUF -140
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 60.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -128
- CGY +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +7 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +71 Elo | BUF 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.8% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%16th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 15th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–7 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.