Winnipeg Jets at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets
Panthers- Dmitry KulikovGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Dmitry KulikovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:23Dmitry Kulikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (14), Sam Reinhart (15)0–5
- P214:36Aleksander Barkov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (14), Gustav Forsling (7)0–4
- P212:21Evan Rodrigues Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (13), Aaron Ekblad (7)0–3
- P22:07Nate Schmidt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (8), Sam Reinhart (13)0–2
- P114:59Mackie Samoskevich Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Gustav Forsling (6), A.J. Greer (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:59Mackie Samoskevich Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Gustav Forsling (6), A.J. Greer (4)WPG 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 55% → 70% +16FLA 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P22:07Nate Schmidt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (8), Sam Reinhart (13)WPG 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 71% → 85% +13FLA 71% → 85%+13 pts
- P212:21Evan Rodrigues Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (13), Aaron Ekblad (7)WPG 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 88% → 96% +8FLA 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P214:36Aleksander Barkov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (14), Gustav Forsling (7)WPG 0 – 4 FLA · FLA 96% → >99% +3FLA 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P33:23Dmitry Kulikov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (14), Sam Reinhart (15)WPG 0 – 5 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 55%
- ML WPG +115 / FLA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 52.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -124
- WPG +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 3.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +18 Elo | FLA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.4 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.1 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 51.5%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.8% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 1st of 327–1 | Road vs home | 4–416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–7 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–0 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.