Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Colin MillerAssists1
- Adam LowryPoints1
Lightning- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Ryan McDonaghPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:39Jake Guentzel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (5)1–4
- P26:54Adam Lowry Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Colin Miller (5), Haydn Fleury (1)1–3
- P24:07Anthony Cirelli Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (11), Nikita Kucherov (13)0–3
- P23:10Brandon Hagel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (2), Emil Lilleberg (4)0–2
- P17:24Jake Guentzel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (8), Ryan McDonagh (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:24Jake Guentzel Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (8), Ryan McDonagh (5)WPG 0 – 1 TB · TB 57% → 71% +14TB 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P23:10Brandon Hagel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (2), Emil Lilleberg (4)WPG 0 – 2 TB · TB 73% → 86% +13TB 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P24:07Anthony Cirelli Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (11), Nikita Kucherov (13)WPG 0 – 3 TB · TB 86% → 94% +8TB 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P26:54Adam Lowry Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Colin Miller (5), Haydn Fleury (1)WPG 1 – 3 TB · WPG 5% → 13% +8WPG 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P319:39Jake Guentzel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (5)WPG 1 – 4 TB · TB 100% → 100% +0TB 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML WPG +125 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- TB: Elo 50.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- WPG +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −23 | +3 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +7 Elo | TB 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.6 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.1 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.4 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3293.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 1st of 327–0 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–6 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–0 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.