Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals2
- Neal PionkAssists3
- Neal PionkPoints3
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Braden SchneiderAssists2
- Will CuyllePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:40Kyle Connor Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (3), Neal Pionk (14)6–3
- P313:08Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (11)5–3
- P31:40Kaapo Kakko Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Will Cuylle (6), Braden Schneider (5)4–3
- P31:08Mark Scheifele Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Dylan DeMelo (3), Kyle Connor (11)4–2
- P216:03Kyle Connor Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (13)3–2
- P212:51Alexis Lafrenière Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (12), Artemi Panarin (12)2–2
- P28:58Gabriel Vilardi Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (10), Neal Pionk (12)2–1
- P113:07Will Cuylle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (4), Filip Chytil (5)1–1
- P10:57Mark Scheifele Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:58Gabriel Vilardi Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (10), Neal Pionk (12)WPG 2 – 1 NYR · WPG 48% → 68% +20WPG 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P212:51Alexis Lafrenière Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (12), Artemi Panarin (12)WPG 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 31% → 51% +21NYR 31% → 51%+21 pts
- P216:03Kyle Connor Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (13)WPG 3 – 2 NYR · WPG 49% → 71% +22WPG 49% → 71%+22 pts
- P31:08Mark Scheifele Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Dylan DeMelo (3), Kyle Connor (11)WPG 4 – 2 NYR · WPG 73% → 90% +17WPG 73% → 90%+17 pts
- P31:40Kaapo Kakko Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Will Cuylle (6), Braden Schneider (5)WPG 4 – 3 NYR · NYR 10% → 26% +17NYR 10% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 52%
- ML WPG +100 / NYR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NYR: Elo 52.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -109
- WPG +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.2 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +16 Elo | NYR 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.5 | Goals scored | 3.86th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.1 | Goals allowed | 2.32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.4 | Margin | +1.53rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3293.1% | Save percentage | 93.1%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 1st of 326–0 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–6 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 1–1 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.