Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jonathan DrouinAssists1
- Jonathan DrouinPoints1
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Helge GransAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:32Tyson Foerster Goal (4) Poke, assists: Bobby Brink (6), Helge Grans (1)3–2
- P311:48Owen Tippett Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (12), Travis Sanheim (7)3–1
- P38:34Casey Mittelstadt Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (15), Jonathan Drouin (1)3–0
- P215:08Cale Makar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (11), Mikko Rantanen (14)2–0
- P28:30Cale Makar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (27), Devon Toews (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:30Cale Makar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (27), Devon Toews (4)COL 1 – 0 PHI · COL 60% → 78% +17COL 60% → 78%+17 pts
- P215:08Cale Makar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (11), Mikko Rantanen (14)COL 2 – 0 PHI · COL 79% → 91% +13COL 79% → 91%+13 pts
- P38:34Casey Mittelstadt Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (15), Jonathan Drouin (1)COL 3 – 0 PHI · COL 97% → >99% +3COL 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P311:48Owen Tippett Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (12), Travis Sanheim (7)COL 3 – 1 PHI · PHI <1% → 2% +2PHI <1% → 2%+2 pts
- P313:32Tyson Foerster Goal (4) Poke, assists: Bobby Brink (6), Helge Grans (1)COL 3 – 2 PHI · PHI <1% → 11% +10PHI <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML COL -200 / PHI +170
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- COL: Elo 55.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -180
- PHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −8 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +37 Elo | COL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.6% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3286.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 11th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–12 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–6 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.