Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Anthony RichardGoals1
- Anthony RichardAssists1
- Anthony RichardPoints2
Senators- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Ridly GreigAssists2
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:05Matvei Michkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (10), Travis Sanheim (5)5–4
- P312:45Bobby Brink Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Anthony Richard (2), Travis Sanheim (4)4–4
- P310:42Anthony Richard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (5), Egor Zamula (4)3–4
- P310:05Adam Gaudette Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Thomas Chabot (10), Ridly Greig (2)2–4
- P34:27Josh Norris Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (9), Ridly Greig (1)2–3
- P218:48Travis Konecny Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (2), Nick Seeler (4)2–2
- P28:41Drake Batherson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (14), Jake Sanderson (9)1–2
- P16:02Brady Tkachuk Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (5), Travis Hamonic (1)1–1
- P12:31Travis Sanheim Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (3), Garnet Hathaway (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:41Drake Batherson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (14), Jake Sanderson (9)PHI 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 59% → 77% +18OTT 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P218:48Travis Konecny Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (2), Nick Seeler (4)PHI 2 – 2 OTT · PHI 21% → 42% +21PHI 21% → 42%+21 pts
- P34:27Josh Norris Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (9), Ridly Greig (1)PHI 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 57% → 81% +25OTT 57% → 81%+25 pts
- P312:45Bobby Brink Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Anthony Richard (2), Travis Sanheim (4)PHI 4 – 4 OTT · PHI 12% → 45% +33PHI 12% → 45%+33 pts
- OT4:05Matvei Michkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (10), Travis Sanheim (5)PHI 5 – 4 OTT · PHI 48% → >99% +51PHI 48% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 63%
- ML PHI +160 / OTT -190
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 64.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- OTT -170
- PHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +13 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +101 Elo | OTT 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 62.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.510th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 5–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–10 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.