Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints1
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:21Brady Tkachuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P217:16Michael Amadio Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (1), Thomas Chabot (7)2–2
- P25:06Brad Marchand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (2), Hampus Lindholm (4)1–2
- P24:51Pavel Zacha Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (8), Nikita Zadorov (5)1–1
- P119:52Josh Norris Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (10), Drake Batherson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:52Josh Norris Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (10), Drake Batherson (8)OTT 1 – 0 BOS · OTT 44% → 62% +18OTT 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P24:51Pavel Zacha Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (8), Nikita Zadorov (5)OTT 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 37% → 55% +19BOS 37% → 55%+19 pts
- P25:06Brad Marchand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (2), Hampus Lindholm (4)OTT 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 55% → 73% +18BOS 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P217:16Michael Amadio Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (1), Thomas Chabot (7)OTT 2 – 2 BOS · OTT 24% → 46% +22OTT 24% → 46%+22 pts
- OT0:21Brady Tkachuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 2 BOS · OTT 48% → 90% +42OTT 48% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML OTT +125 / BOS -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- OTT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +2 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +53 Elo | BOS 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.