San Jose Sharks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Jack ThompsonGoals1
- William EklundAssists2
- William EklundPoints2
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Travis Konecny Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Matvei Michkov Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P317:36Barclay Goodrow Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Henry Thrun (5), Cody Ceci (3)3–3
- P218:33Mikael Granlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (9), Fabian Zetterlund (5)2–3
- P215:29Jack Thompson Goal (2) Deflected, assists: William Eklund (8), Mikael Granlund (11)1–3
- P25:09Matvei Michkov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (6), Egor Zamula (3)0–3
- P115:56Travis Konecny Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (7), Emil Andrae (2)0–2
- P11:40Erik Johnson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Richard (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:40Erik Johnson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Richard (1)SJ 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 70% → 82% +11PHI 70% → 82%+11 pts
- P115:56Travis Konecny Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (7), Emil Andrae (2)SJ 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 81% → 91% +9PHI 81% → 91%+9 pts
- P25:09Matvei Michkov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (6), Egor Zamula (3)SJ 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 91% → 97% +5PHI 91% → 97%+5 pts
- P218:33Mikael Granlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (9), Fabian Zetterlund (5)SJ 2 – 3 PHI · SJ 6% → 18% +11SJ 6% → 18%+11 pts
- P317:36Barclay Goodrow Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Henry Thrun (5), Cody Ceci (3)SJ 3 – 3 PHI · SJ 3% → 46% +43SJ 3% → 46%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML SJ +225 / PHI -275
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 67.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -238
- SJ +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.6 – 3.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +6 | SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +126 Elo | PHI 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 71.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.723rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.2 | Margin | −1.030th of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.7% | Shot share | 48.3%23rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.2%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 2–428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.