Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Artem ZubAssists2
- Artem ZubPoints2
Maple LeafsScoring summary
- P23:55Michael Amadio Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (2)3–0
- P23:12Tim Stützle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (9), Thomas Chabot (8)2–0
- P10:41Josh Norris Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (7), Artem Zub (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:41Josh Norris Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (7), Artem Zub (1)OTT 1 – 0 TOR · OTT 47% → 61% +14OTT 47% → 61%+14 pts
- P23:12Tim Stützle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (9), Thomas Chabot (8)OTT 2 – 0 TOR · OTT 66% → 81% +15OTT 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P23:55Michael Amadio Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (2)OTT 3 – 0 TOR · OTT 81% → 91% +10OTT 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML OTT +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- OTT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.7 – 2.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +17 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.43 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +76 Elo | TOR 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.610th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.0% | Shot share | 52.4%8th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 24th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–6 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–1 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.