Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Emil HeinemanAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints1
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- David KampfAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- P212:15John Tavares Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (16), William Nylander (7)1–4
- P29:26Brendan Gallagher Goal (7) Batted, assists: Emil Heineman (2), Lane Hutson (8)1–3
- P28:24Mitch Marner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Kampf (3)0–3
- P25:39William Nylander Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (3), Morgan Rielly (8)0–2
- P114:55Conor Timmins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (2), Ryan Reaves (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:55Conor Timmins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (2), Ryan Reaves (1)MTL 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 63% → 78% +14TOR 63% → 78%+14 pts
- P25:39William Nylander Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (3), Morgan Rielly (8)MTL 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 78% → 90% +11TOR 78% → 90%+11 pts
- P28:24Mitch Marner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Kampf (3)MTL 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 90% → 96% +6TOR 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P29:26Brendan Gallagher Goal (7) Batted, assists: Emil Heineman (2), Lane Hutson (8)MTL 1 – 3 TOR · MTL 4% → 10% +6MTL 4% → 10%+6 pts
- P212:15John Tavares Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (16), William Nylander (7)MTL 1 – 4 TOR · TOR 91% → 97% +6TOR 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 65%
- ML MTL +175 / TOR -210
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -186
- MTL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −15 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +77 Elo | TOR 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 68.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.1 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 31st of 3243.9% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 91.4%5th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–3 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.